Charles Smith
Bureaucrat Administrator
Utility Storm Merging Group;
http://www.uwig.org/
Reston, VA
markets - low cost/low suppleness
amendable generation
rest imprison
wind curtailment (announce tradf. tx 17%!)
imprison - intoxicated cost/high suppleness
time scales:
piece of writing (seconds-minutes)
consignment in the wake of (minutes-hours)
section commitment (hours-days)
ISOs - not considerably peculiarity day-ahead, hour-ahead, 5-min
big diff within-hour 5-minute range.
(caused in effect by changeability in ancillary air force models)
Idea: differentials in LMP connecting midwest and east might pay for announce upgrades. (BUT it might suitably act as an carry mechanism for coal power.)
harmonizing worth - set of scales wind seriousness and $/MWh
forecasting for day-ahead operations
situational inkling forecast - thought-provoking weather
hour-ahead: 10 min forecasts 4-6 hours into view (efficient hourly)
(responsibility)
day-ahead forecast: hourly forecasts 2-4 days into view, efficient 12 hours
(pecuniary)
forecast crime, exceptional raise
energy (% correct) 10-15%
skill (% rated) 4-6
day into view 24-30% hourly
day into view skill grr
ERCOT Feb 26 2008 situation.
correct generation exceeds 80% outer reaches on low mass
fossil raise inferior to come online (800MW)
abrupt consignment store (1000MW)
aggregation - reduces changeability.
Storm is an energy resource, not a skill resource.
(Plea skill to close up responsibility.)
worth of imprison - garbage cruelly constant as seriousness increases.
beginning force machines furnish damping for incidence upshot.
google announce line - fully not central to personage DC cable. Suspects it's surpass to glue actual as soon as the AC web.
Michael Brower, CTO, AWS Truewind
awstruepower.com;
wind energy forecasting -
top figure isos get forecast document
$4.50/MWh association worth at 10%.
forecasts can slash doubt, slash worth
raise power curves nonlinear, so small wind errors = big power crime
5-60 minutes - regulation/realtime passage
1-6 hours - load-following
24 hours - section commitment, development, cope with trading
seasonal/long-term - resource notions, prospect size up
measuring forecasts -
inferior crime, inferior monarch crime, rms crime
inferior monarch crime
1 hr 6-7%
2 9%
3 12-15%
4 12-16%
day into view MAE
eWind ~15%
pop group forecast - weighted inferior of combined forecast
procedure forecasts - "introduce regimes", optimized for what's more procedure
incline forecasting -
everyplace to step - may need to step 300km away!
need hig-altitude quantity too.
association -
- mandate levels
web operators don't brains as regards small errors, they brains as regards big ramps that might pay for the web depressed.
forecast errors huge every time forecasting a incline
Michael Milligan
- NREL -
worth of association for wind and solar energy: large -scale studies and implications;
WWSIS, EWITS
"large" association - ~10%.
(hang on thought-out to 30%, torn instruction at 40%)
tradfs: personage on all sides of wind or personage on all sides of circle.
wind power vs announce.
varies by month - 30% annual report seriousness varies connecting 15 and 55%
sysop does "net consignment" consignment - renewables
(sort out renewable as exogenous and optimize brusquely broad piece)
requires matched section commitment and passage
worth as soon as ideal forecasts vs note of the art (see look at)
See RISOE for stochastic small statue,
interesting: EWITS puts no wind in the south.
changeability in large geographic distances - aggregation deportment astounding.
top figure changeability at the spirit of nameplate.
At intoxicated end, on the flat clause of the jaunt.
At the extremity end, not considerably induce.
"If you beloved wind power, you hang on to at lowest amount poverty announce" (poverty Neko Fire at)
several MWh of wind offsets everything.
Plea to be on the edge to be flexible as soon as thermal generating units.
for association -
less baseload
higher amendable
imprison varies ERCOT gets 50% of consignment upshot from instruct upshot.
Form ranks Henson - ISO New England - NEWIS
- 4GW announce cover up, 10GW wind
transient forecast crime drives load of attractive piece of writing wishes (higher than wind changeability)
through higher wind plan that piece of writing resources are recycled higher recurrently.
offshore wind tends to communicate higher as soon as acme consignment in NE
Groove O'Malley
, Ireland - Republic of Ireland & Northern Ireland
interrelated power system
9.7 GW just right, 1.8 GW wind
max consignment 6.5GW, min consignment 2.4 GW, 450VDC track to britain
crown wind seriousness of any synchronous power system
higher than denmark (E/W denmark are section and clause of huge systems)
In ireland, wind and consignment are fully synchronous. nice.
(plot: mediocre consignment in the engagement by hour)
importantly, crown acme habitually recorded was on a near-zero wind day.
skill facade
1999-2009 31% (max 34%, min 29%)
2010 - 23% (history low)
every time ireland adds a lot of wind, it reduces higher co2 in GB than ireland!
(stops imports from british coal, starts exporting irish gas)
stochastic section commitment. "Section commitment for Systems as soon as Full-size..." o'malley et al good record to right to use. (downloaded)
how do you ingrain the worth of starts and cycling (long-lasting contract) in the field of a transient optimization? (top figure moist research field)
imprison -
1 pumped hydro section (292 MW for 5 hours)
Out on maintenance for 9 mo
no additional imprison in the unique association look at.
[pumped hydro is 70-85% round-trip iron]
thought-out up to 12GW (80%)
as soon as stochastic optimization, imprison leads to less curtailment.
assertion: imprison procedure soul constantly worth higher than a thermal section (turbine+civil eng!)
as soon as higher imprison, in ireland it soul use higher british coal to lead its imprison units (Eric Ingersoll asserts that having 300 hours of imprison enables nomad irregular, not suitably day-to-day irregular.)
doubly-fed beginning generator wind turbine. a bit pliable.
doesn't add any inactivity to the system.
harder to do incidence piece of writing.
the higher wind contemporary is on the system, the higher incidence dips you get as soon as an situation
GE has a mechanism in its new turbines to lovely as soon as this.
ge slides
nicholas.miller@ge.com,
GE Storm, Lethargy -
use rudder to remove stored revolving inertial energy,
don't still the foil too considerably, or stall
monitor combined exploit twirl radio
mention, on the other hand, that the turbine soul use power to recuperate its kinetic energy;
wind turbines can in theory be surpass for incidence exploit than thermal
(due to portly revolving inactivity)
web codes - requirement be able to give back to extensive undervoltage
Eric Ingersoll,
CEO, rife neatness
long-duration imprison for baseload wind
goal: interrupt nuke and coal.
contemporary is no cope with for imprison tech.
biz model: name power
we are recruiting
raised $24M
oh no:
rough to contest vs fully-depreciated coal raise
developers don't get skill bill for wind
specialization chains cowardly and erratic
ITC - (support tax bill) - 30-40% of capex (?)
good:
capex outlook depressed
turbines being paid surpass
v112: 99m blade!
microforecasting (10sec lookahead)
O&M outlook depressed
goal: contest in "thoroughgoing" power cope with
utilities don't yearning to buy wind
helps announce - portly skill facade
issues:
period of imprison, version in resource
, no storage: to audience a 100MW corporate, personage 200MW.
8-10hr storage: miss 1800hr/yr passage, strum 18% of energy (insufficient imprison)
200 hr storage: no dumping, no hours missed unexceptionally need 100-300hr imprison, depending.
higher capital-intensive than gas vegetation.
near-zero insignificant worth to run
tech: compresser/expander, use salty caverns
quasi-isothermal neatness system. babies thermal reverse.
$48M, can personage salty dip provisions 3000-4000 MWh
$4/kWh
TX raise earns $35/MWh extraordinary, $70/MWh thoroughgoing
(TX nuke $80/MWh)
irony: ireland & new england pay for in wind, backs off clean gas.
requires want very much allowance time, intoxicated system power.
compresser-expander worth relates to power
dip worth is allowance time
not very much coexistent
.
